Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-15

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-05) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-05 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-05. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-05. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-05. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-05. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-05)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-05) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 93 (46 – 138) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -51 (10 – Inf)
Argentina 109 (62 – 160) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 150 (9.2 – Inf)
Australia 68 (25 – 105) Decreasing 0.6 (0.5 – 0.8) -10 (33 – Inf)
Austria 202 (132 – 275) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -15 (130 – Inf)
Azerbaijan 70 (35 – 113) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -67 (8.9 – Inf)
Bahrain 126 (83 – 170) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 2) 6.7 (4.1 – 17)
Bangladesh 130 (80 – 177) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 2.1) 6.6 (4 – 17)
Belarus 353 (281 – 416) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 11 (7.1 – 27)
Belgium 1372 (1227 – 1497) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 460 (38 – Inf)
Brazil 1390 (1249 – 1542) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -960 (34 – Inf)
Cameroon 52 (11 – 85) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -9.8 (14 – Inf)
Canada 1225 (1107 – 1363) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -68 (99 – Inf)
Chile 375 (300 – 446) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 550 (20 – Inf)
China 107 (55 – 155) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 16 (6 – Inf)
Colombia 163 (97 – 235) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 1800 (11 – Inf)
Czechia 141 (77 – 202) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -12 (110 – Inf)
Denmark 181 (121 – 234) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -10 (Inf – Inf)
Dominican Republic 205 (147 – 258) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 18 (8.1 – Inf)
Ecuador 540 (389 – 722) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 15 (7.2 – Inf)
Egypt 136 (82 – 184) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) -330 (12 – Inf)
Estonia 46 (9 – 84) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -41 (6 – Inf)
Finland 122 (74 – 182) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -21 (21 – Inf)
France 2829 (2640 – 3051) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -24 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 2857 (2656 – 3052) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -14 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 69 (32 – 99) Increasing 1.7 (1.1 – 2.2) 6.2 (3.4 – 39)
Greece 66 (22 – 106) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 120 (6.6 – Inf)
Hungary 100 (45 – 151) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 29 (6.6 – Inf)
India 979 (870 – 1111) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 14 (10 – 25)
Indonesia 333 (265 – 402) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 16 (8.7 – 89)
Iran 1735 (1591 – 1897) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -19 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 51 (14 – 83) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -16 (11 – Inf)
Ireland 851 (739 – 956) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 12 (8.6 – 21)
Israel 414 (325 – 482) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -63 (32 – Inf)
Italy 3943 (3702 – 4179) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) 31000 (68 – Inf)
Japan 705 (603 – 805) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.6) 9.2 (6.8 – 14)
Kazakhstan 107 (63 – 143) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 12 (5.4 – Inf)
Kuwait 112 (61 – 167) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 34 (7.5 – Inf)
Lithuania 58 (11 – 111) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 24 (4.1 – Inf)
Luxembourg 75 (14 – 128) Unsure 0.9 (0.4 – 1.3) -20 (8.3 – Inf)
Malaysia 159 (97 – 216) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -780 (13 – Inf)
Mexico 388 (301 – 458) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 26 (11 – Inf)
Moldova 123 (61 – 176) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 130 (9.2 – Inf)
Morocco 113 (66 – 171) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 52 (8.2 – Inf)
Netherlands 1178 (1055 – 1317) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 44 (20 – Inf)
Norway 98 (50 – 140) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -12 (54 – Inf)
Oman 100 (56 – 136) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 2) 7.1 (4 – 35)
Pakistan 294 (228 – 355) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -25 (63 – Inf)
Panama 196 (120 – 273) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 83 (11 – Inf)
Peru 822 (709 – 928) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 11 (7.8 – 20)
Philippines 235 (178 – 299) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 35 (11 – Inf)
Poland 337 (259 – 400) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -53 (34 – Inf)
Portugal 661 (556 – 758) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -92 (37 – Inf)
Puerto Rico 88 (34 – 133) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) 13 (4.6 – Inf)
Qatar 227 (161 – 278) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 250 (15 – Inf)
Romania 366 (290 – 432) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 56 (15 – Inf)
Russia 2078 (1894 – 2247) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 9.8 (8 – 12)
Saudi Arabia 420 (340 – 494) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 11 (7.1 – 21)
Serbia 249 (183 – 310) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 200 (16 – Inf)
Singapore 284 (217 – 352) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.2 (5.5 – 16)
Slovakia 30 (5 – 56) Unsure 0.9 (0.4 – 1.3) -11 (7.5 – Inf)
South Africa 102 (51 – 145) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 16 (5.9 – Inf)
South Korea 45 (12 – 77) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -22 (7.6 – Inf)
Spain 4261 (4016 – 4504) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -21 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 461 (379 – 538) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -78 (32 – Inf)
Switzerland 485 (392 – 563) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -16 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 50 (16 – 84) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -10 (17 – Inf)
Turkey 4626 (4373 – 4879) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 26 (19 – 40)
Ukraine 302 (228 – 360) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 11 (6.7 – 28)
United Arab Emirates 384 (311 – 465) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 28 (12 – Inf)
United Kingdom 5748 (5429 – 6035) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 29 (21 – 46)
United States of America 28602 (27942 – 29276) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -78 (Inf – Inf)
Uzbekistan 114 (69 – 160) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 12 (5.3 – Inf)

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